San Francisco Real Estate |
In such an unusual year, many of you are still trying to figure out if now is the right time to make a move. I’d like to share with you a couple of the sentiments that I’ve been hearing amongst my agent network for buyers who are sitting on the sidelines or sellers who are waiting to list. Following that is my usual market update. 1. Selling in a down market means you can buy in a down market. If you list now, you might sell a bit lower but you can buy so much more with it. Think of the home — and that balcony or home office — you can now buy at a discount. 2. Active buyers are more serious than ever before. People have spent the last 5 months realizing the inadequacies of their home. The buyers who are looking right now, in the middle of Covid-19, are very motivated to get a transaction done and take advantage of the historically low mortgage rates. 3. Price so that the market chases you up, not down. If you don’t price correctly, chances are buyers will not bid — and they may not even view. 4. We don’t know what the future holds. Don’t take this buyer demand for granted. This unprecedented year is far from over — the election and ongoing pandemic could freeze real estate activity again, making it harder to sell afterward. And if your home may require some home improvement services to shine, it’s time to take advantage of this moment when we know that contractors are still allowed inside the home. 1. It's likely prices will go up because of inflation. After an unprecedented government stimulus, expect inflation sooner or later. Investing in real estate is a great hedge against that. 2. Interest rates are at historic lows — but don’t take that for granted. Requirements and rates will worsen at some point. 3. There’s real value in comfort and security right now. What matters more to you: trying to time the bottom of the market, or finding the right home that’ll make you and your family feel comfortable and safe during this time? 4. Try to avoid the “wait and see” mentality. Nobody buys at the bottom — and knows it. Focus on quality as your priority: the best deal on the best match that meets your needs for years to come. As always, if you'd like a more tailored look at how the market is playing out in your neighborhood, just let me know. |
As illustrated below, the San Francisco market currently reflects a variety of both positive and negative indicators. Among Bay Area markets, the city is seeing the softest recovery from the initial shelter-in-place plunge in activity in early spring, while some other counties - less expensive, more suburban or rural - are experiencing extremely high demand. (See table near the end of this report.) Within San Francisco itself, supply and demand conditions have diverged dramatically between house and condo markets, with the latter being far weaker and rapidly climbing into "buyer's market" territory. |
On a 3-month rolling basis, SF median house sales prices are as high as they've ever been. The median condo sales price, while not particularly low, has been running lower than the highs of last year. |
Supply & Demand Indicators |
The number of listings going into contract has been increasing, but at a much lower rate than inventory is growing (chart 1). Sales volume is climbing, but is still far below the high points of recent years (chart 2). Price reductions have been soaring in recent months (chart 3). |
Diverging House and Condo Market Conditions |
The next 5 charts illustrate the increasingly stark divide in the levels of inventory and buyer demand between these 2 major market segments. However, it should be noted that within the condo market, certain segments and locations are performing better than others. The largest condo market in San Francisco - the greater South Beach, SoMa, Mission Bay, Civic Center area, dominated by large complexes and high-rise buildings, including continuing new construction projects - is seeing the weakest conditions. |
As illustrated in the following 2 graphs, the supply of listings on the market is at its highest point in 8 years, with the inventory of condos spiking way, way up. As a market softens, correct pricing becomes increasingly critical for sellers. In a hot market, buyers compete for listings; in a cooler market, sellers compete for buyers. |
Though climbing in recent months, the days-on-market figures are not high. It appears those listings selling are going into contract relatively quickly. |
The amount and magnitude of buyers overbidding asking prices is considerably diminished from levels seen in the past 6 years. Part of this is due to the change in showing conditions brought about by strict shelter-in-place rules. But in an environment of increased inventory, buyers see a reduced necessity to compete with each other. |
Luxury Homes Going into Contract |
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