Clients, friends, and colleagues:
2021 was a banner year for San Francisco. Sales were up higher than they have been in 16 years. We closed the year at $13.5 billion in sales. Over the last four or five years, we've been averaging between $8.5 and $9 billion in sales.
December numbers have been recorded. Total number of sales in San Francisco for December 2021 was 533; down 21% from December 2020 but up 19% from December 2019. This is an indicator of a gradual return to seasonality (regressing to the mean in terms of pre-pandemic inventory trends).
Q4 2021 figures for San Francisco (October through December):
Big jumps in median sales price:
Median price (Single-Family): +13.8% ($1,821,000)
Median price (Condos): +11.2% ($1,279,000)
Median price (Condos in D9*): +12.4% ($1,180,000)
Big dips in average days on market:
Average DOM (Single-Family): 13 Days (vs. 22 in 2020)
Average DOM (Condos): 32 Days (vs. 50 in 2020)
Average DOM (Condos in D9): 39 Days (vs. 59 in 2020)
*
D9 = District 9, and represents our most condo dense district of the city (includes SoMa, South Beach, Yerba Buena, Mission Bay, Dogpatch, Potrero Hill, Inner Mission, and Bernal Heights). Because D9 is a unique sector (that got hit harder by remote work during the pandemic), I like to include D9 figures alongside the general condo data.
The series of data charts below provide great context on housing trends over the years, population changes (SF population has decreased by 2% since 2019), and interest rates.
Forecasts for 2022 in SF:
I expect prices to continue to increase (in both condos and single-family) in 2022, but at a slightly lower pace than 2021.
Simply put, barring any catastrophic new covid news, I'm feeling (and seeing) that the demand for urban living should continue to tick up in a positive direction throughout the year, with supply continually restricted by high costs of construction and available land.
Rising interest rates will impact purchasing power, but the fact that rates are still historically low is pushing buyers to act faster. I've already had a few clients get into contract (and several others reaching out to begin their search) in order to lock-in lower rates. For some context: mortgage rates jumped to an average of 3.22% on January 6th, 2022 (highest since May 2020), and are expected to continue to rise throughout the year to fight inflation.
If you have any specific questions about the market, I look forward to hearing from you!
