October 2024 Market Report

San Francisco Real Estate

Clients, friends, and colleagues:

My last report noted the drop in interest rates to a 1.5 year low, nearing 6% for the 30-yr fixed and inflation falling to its lowest point in 3.5 years. Both positive developments for our housing market.

An unexpectedly strong jobs report has caused interest rates to spike back up (the largest one week increase since April). It's challenging to predict changes in interest rates as there are many macroeconomic and political factors at play, but the consensus opinion is that rates will continue to decline in Q4.

Though sales activity increased in September, the recent drop in interest rates did not precipitate as substantial of a rebound in demad as I and many had anticipated. It's tough to say why; some of my first-time-buyers see too big of a margin in their rent vs. buy analyses, others are hoping for rates to drop further. And while there's never been data to support buyer hesitancy due to an upcoming election, it may also be true that this is not your typical election year.

I'll leave you with 2 things:

1) September did see a substantial jump in new listings coming on market (by far the highest monthly count of the year) which means buyers have their widest choice of homes since late 2023.

2) As we brush up on the mid-winter holidays, we will start seeing a high number of price reductions as sellers attempt to get into escrow before the slowdown.

In short, it's a great time to be a strong buyer.

Cheers,

Matt

Matt Wathen

DRE# 01879082

M: 415.920.3213

[email protected]

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multi­county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.