San Francisco - June 2025 Market Report

San Francisco Real Estate

Clients, friends, and colleagues:

Ongoing volatility in political/economic conditions - particularly the plunge in stock markets in April, which affected May home sales - took some wind out of the spring real estate market, usually the most dynamic of the year.

Uncertainty regarding the economy and the possible implications for personal financial circumstances understandably made a proportion of buyers and sellers hesitant about moving forward. Still, while most Bay Area markets slowed year over year, there was nothing approximating a crash. As inventory continued to rise, sales activity failed to keep pace, resulting in lower absorption rates (supply/demand). With more homes for sale and somewhat less competition between buyers, overbidding generally declined, time-on-market ticked up, and price reductions increased. Most counties saw small year-over-year declines in their 3-month rolling median home sales prices.

But many of these indicators of slowdown did not occur in San Francisco, which had one of the Bay Area’s strongest markets in May: SF median sales prices rose, inventory remained steady, and both the number of listings going into contract and the % of sales sold for over the asking price increased.

It’s worth noting that virtually all May sales were negotiated before the May 12 reversal of China-tariff policies, which triggered an enormous rebound in the stock market.

Dow: +3.4% YTD

Nasdaq: +5.1% YTD

S&P: +5.2% YTD

Unlike stocks, home sales don’t reflect shifts in market conditions instantly - there is typically a 3–6 week lag between offer acceptance and close of sale.

The speed and scale of developments in 2025 - tariffs, stock markets, inflation, interest rates, consumer confidence, tax law, national debt concerns, international relations, what the Fed decides, and so on - have made it challenging for real estate market reports to keep up. As always, real estate trends vary widely depending on the specific location and property type.

A positive nugget regarding SF’s downtown sector - our rental market is performing very well. According to Zumper, the average 1-bedroom condo in SF is up 12.5% year-over-year to $3,330/mo. This is up from its post-pandemic low of $2,600/mo in April 2021. The tides are turning.

If you have any specific questions, I’m always here to help.

Cheers,

Matt

Matt Wathen

DRE# 01879082

M: 415.920.3213

[email protected]

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multi­county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.