November 2024 Market Report

San Francisco Real Estate

Clients, friends, and colleagues:

How is the market doing after the election? While we can't attribute current data to the election results, let's jump right into the most important metrics:

The stock market reacted positively to the election results (of course there can be many reasons for this), continuing it's very strong 2024 trajectory (Dow is +16.5% YTD; Nasdaq is +30% YTD).

Mortgage interest rates have continued to climb since their low in mid September; the average 30-yr fixed is now pushing 6.8%.

Median sales price for single-family homes is +1.8% year-over-year, while condo prices are +5.8% year-over-year.

The absorption rate in San Francisco (in other words, the % of active listings going into contract) hit its highest point since spring 2022 (the very peak of our housing market) this October. This is a very positive sign for real estate prices moving in the right direction, despite high interest rates.

Our luxury sector has seen a huge increase in demand:

2024 year-to-date sales of luxury house sales ($5M+) are up 40% and luxury condo and co-op sales ($2.5M+) are up 48% (!).

In other words, the segment of the market that is most positively impacted by financial market gains and least negatively impacted by higher mortgage interest rates, is the segment making moves.

Listing and sales activity, as well as virtually all the standard metrics of demand, typically cool dramatically in November and December. The number of unsold listings taken off the market usually jumps, especially in higher price segments. Still, the next 2 months can be an excellent time for buyers to negotiate more aggressively to make some of the best deals of the year.

Cheers,

Matt

Matt Wathen

DRE# 01879082

M: 415.920.3213

[email protected]

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multi­county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.