Clients, friends, and colleagues:
Here are some quick, bite-sized data points from September to start you off. More context on interest rates, Anthropic’s IPO, and Fall Watch below.
Single-Family Homes
Median price is +17% year-over-year
92% of homes sold over list price, the most competitive market in Northern California
New listings jumped 62% from August as fall inventory hit the market (but this is 13.6% below last year)
Condos
Median price is +23% year-over-year
66% sold over list price, up 27 percentage points from last year
Stock Market (YTD, as of mid-October)
The Dow is +7.8%
The Nasdaq is +15.0%
The S&P 500 is +12.9%
Interest Rates
The average 30-yr fixed is now 7.40% per Freddie Mac, more than a full point higher than this time last year (6.27%). The 10-yr Treasury yield is above 5%.
Inflation is still running above target, and jobs and corporate profits keep coming in strong. That combination tends to keep rates elevated, so don’t look for relief anytime soon.
For most housing markets across the country, that’s a gut punch. Here in San Francisco, sales continue to be driven more by wealth creation than by mortgage rates. Keep in mind this varies greatly by sector in San Francisco (high-end, luxury properties being most unaffected by interest rates).
Our chief economist at Compass put it well: local tech has fewer jobs than it did during the pandemic hiring boom, but those jobs are increasingly concentrated at the very top of the pay scale. For our market, that means fewer buyers with far more purchasing power. It’s how 92% of houses can still sell over asking with rates north of 7%.
Anthropic IPO Update
Anthropic officially filed its S-1 with the SEC on Monday, October 26, moving its long-awaited IPO into the public phase. The company plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, although the share price and size of the offering haven’t been set yet. Reports indicate Anthropic could begin formally marketing the IPO as soon as the week of November 9, keeping a mid-November debut in sight. OpenAI, meanwhile, has pushed its own IPO plans to 2027.
My take hasn’t changed. Some AI wealth has already hit our market through employee share sales; OpenAI alone ran a $7 billion tender this August. But Anthropic employees largely held onto their shares in this spring’s buyback, priced at a $350B valuation versus the much higher valuations now being discussed. So the bigger unlock is still ahead, likely landing after employee lock-ups expire in Q1–Q2 2027, right as the spring market kicks off.
Fall Watch
Seasonal inventory is still arriving, but we will see it peter out as we get into November and brush up against the holidays. I'm still seeing boutique condos and single-family homes sell for new records/jaw-dropping prices (146 7th Ave being one of the wildest to date, closing just last week for 85% over-asking. $2,195,000 to $4,050,000).
As always, if you have any questions about a specific property, the market, or how to navigate your current situation, I’m always here and happy to help.
Warmly,
Matt
